Swami Says: Big 12 Predictions, November 10

Swami Says: Big 12 Predictions, November 10

Joe Yeager breaks down each Big 12 football game this weekend and gives his picks for the games.

Baylor at Oklahoma: The Bears held punchless Kansas to 14 points, which lifted Baylor's scoring defense to No. 117 nationally. After Oklahoma gets through with the Bears, they may be dead last.

 

Landry Jones is a limited quarterback, but he's surrounded by dangerous and productive skill players, and that will be enough to torch the Bears. Baylor has many offensive weapons too, but not enough to hang with the Sooners. A few Nick Florence interceptions will help turn this one into a borderline blowout.

 

The Vision: Oklahoma 53 Baylor 34

 

Iowa State at Texas: The Longhorns are the squirreliest—and luckiest—team in the Big 12. At their best, they're very good. At their worst, they're pretty bad. And you can never be certain which team will show up. But even when the bad Horns show up, their talent, along with some "help," usually sees them through to a win.

 

Iowa State is the opposite of Texas. Whereas the Longhorns underachieve, the Cyclones usually punch over their weight. The defense is good enough to keep them in most every game, and if ISU's quarterback gets hot in the fourth quarter, Iowa State can win.

 

This could be a good game, but ultimately I don't see the Cyclones being within striking distance going into the final stanza.

 

The Vision: Texas 30 Iowa State 17

 

Kansas at Texas Tech: With the Red Raider offense fading into a shadow of what it once was, this game could be a bit closer than some would expect. Even against the Jayhawks, Tech cannot afford to misfire too much in the red zone and settle for field goals. In the Big 12, don't you know, a field goal is a victory for the defense. And Kansas' defense is semi-respectable.

 

But it is Tech's defense that will be the difference in this one. Kansas simply has no weapons. Their highest point total in Big 12 play was 17 against Texas. And the Red Raider defense, healthy or not, is capable of squeezing an offense that does not present multiple threats.

 

The Vision: Texas Tech 38 Kansas 13

 

West Virginia at Oklahoma State: Here are two teams with identical 5-3 records, but going in diametrically opposite directions. The Mountaineers, when they're not getting blown out, find ways to lose close games. Oklahoma State, on the other hand, is just a very sound football team. The Cowboys have tremendous offensive balance, regardless of who is under center, and their defense is more than competent.

 

They say teams take on the characteristics of their head coach. In the case of OSU and WVU it's true: the Cowboys are steady Eddies while the Mountaineers are fractious, mercurial and unstable. Thus the fundamentals and intangibles are in Oklahoma State's favor.

 

The Vision: Oklahoma State 49 West Virginia 24

 

Kansas State at TCU: Not so very long ago people were suggesting that a team with two losses could win the Big 12. Now it appears a lead-pipe cinch that Kansas State will run the Big 12 table and take the title in a walkover. Certainly the Wildcats have not been seriously challenged the last three weeks as they rolled over West Virginia, Texas Tech and Oklahoma State. KSU's offense, in particular, was pretty much unstoppable during that stretch.

 

Gary Patterson's Horned Frogs are a gritty team, and they doubtless feel good about themselves following the road win over West Virginia. But the once vaunted TCU stop unit is only No. 47 in scoring defense. They are, however, No. 8 in rush defense and No. 13 in yards per carry allowed. Problem is, KSU is no longer one-dimensional on offense. Collin Klein is now a deadly passer. (He is No. 1 in pass efficiency rating.) The Horned Frogs simply will not be able to match the Wildcats score for score.

 

The Vision: Kansas State 48 TCU 27

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